McMurtry Investment Report and Model Portfolios™

McMurtry Investment Report Portfolios – September 2017


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McMurtry Investment Report – Portfolios (September 2017)

Income Growth
Cash Alterna Bank – High Interest Savings (1.9% current rate) Alterna Bank – High Interest Savings (1.9% current rate)
EQ Bank – High Interest Savings ( 2.30% current rate) EQ Bank – High Interest Savings ( 2.30% current rate)
Bonds iShares  XSB  Short Term iShares XSB  Short Term
iShares  XFR  Floating Rate iShares XFR  Floating Rate
iShares CBO 1-5 Ladder Corp iShares CBO 1-5 Ladder Corp
iShares CLF 1-5 Ladder Gov’t iShares CLF 1-5 Ladder Gov’t
Preferreds Security Dividend Yield % Security Dividend Yield %
Enbridge Pfd V Enb.pr.V US 4.28 Enbridge Pfd V  Enb.pr.V US 4.28
Horizons Active Mgt. Pfd  HPR 4.00 Horizons Active Mgt. Pfd  HPR 4.00
Common Stocks Security Dividend Yield % Security Dividend Yield %
Financials Royal Bank     RY 3.95 Royal Bank     RY 3.95
TD   TD 3.56 TD   TD 3.56
CIBC  CM 4.87 CIBC CM 4.87
Sun Life         SLF 3.61 Sun Life         SLF 3.61
JP Morgan    JPM  US 2.18 JP Morgan   JPM  US 2.18
Bank of America BAC  US 2.01 Bank of America  BAC  US 2.01
Citibank C 2.01 Citibank C 2.01
Manulife   MFC 3.33 Manulife   MFC 3.33
T. Rowe Price  TROW US 2.71 T. Rowe Price  TROW US 2.71
iUnits US Regional Banks  IAT US 1.51 iUnits US Regional Banks  IAT US 1.51
Keycorp KEY US 2.19 Keycorp KEY US 2.19
Blackrock   BLK US 2.37 Blackrock   BLK US 2.37
Visa  V  US 0.64
First Data    FD US 0.00
Energy Suncor   SU 3.29 Suncor   SU 3.29
Freehold    FRU 4.27 Freehold   FRU 4.27
Whitecap  WCP 2.90 Whitecap  WCP 2.90
Torc  TOG 4.65 Torc  TOG 4.65
Pembina Pipe Lines PPL 5.04 Pembina Pipe Lines PPL 5.04
Enbridge ENB 4.87 Enbridge ENB 4.87
Centennial Resources  CDEV US 0.00
Spartan SPE 0.00
Materials Agnico Eagle   AEM 0.80 Agnico Eagle  AEM 0.80
Franco Nevada FN 1.15 Franco Nevada  FN 1.15
Lundin  LUN 1.23
Trevali Mining  TV 0.00
Roxgold   ROXG 0.00
Industrials New Flyer Ind   NFI 2.54 New Flyer Ind   NFI 2.54
WSP Global    WSP 2.90 WSP Global  WSP 2.90
Canadian Pacific  CP 1.16 Canadian Pacific  CP 1.16
General Dynamics   GD US 1.68 General Dynamics  GD US 1.68
SNC Lavalin  SNC 2.02 SNC Lavalin  SNC 2.02
Winpak  WPK 0.23
Consumer Discretionary Home Depot      HD  US 2.36 Home Depot      HD  US 2.36
Sleep Canada  ZZZ 1.97 Sleep Canada  ZZZ 1.97
Stanley Black and Decker  SWK US 1.77 Stanley Black and Decker  SWK US 1.77
Canadian Tire CTC.A 1.79 Canadian Tire CTC.A 1.79
Amazon AMZN US Amazon AMZN US 0.00
Kohl’s  KSS US 5.00 Kohl’s  KSS US 5.00
Telecom Rogers B  RCI.B 2.97 Rogers B  RCI.B 2.97
Consumer Staples Alimentation Couche Tard   ATD.b 0.60 Alimentation Couche Tard  ATD.b 0.60
Loblaws L 1.65 Loblaws L 1.65
Pepsico PEP US 2.78 Pepsico PEP US 2.78
Kraft Heinz  KHC US 3.09 Kraft Heinz KHC US 3.09
Technology Apple   AAPL  US 1.54 Apple  AAPL US 1.54
Microsoft  MSFT US 2.11 Microsoft  MSFT US 2.11
Facebook FB US 0.00
Nvidia NVDA US 0.33
Alphabet   GOOGL US 0.00
Utilities Emera EMA 4.37 Emera EMA 4.37
Fortis   FTS 3.50 Fortis   FTS 3.50
Healthcare Johnson & Johnson  JNJ  US 2.56 Johnson & Johnson  JNJ  US 2.56
Merck  MRK 2.95 Merck  MRK 2.95
US Healthcare iShares ETF IYH US 1.11 US Healthcare iShares ETF IYH US 1.11
Celgene CELG US 0.00
Thermo Fisher Scientific TMO US 0.32
Aphria  APH 0.00
Knight Therapeutics GUD 0.00
IBB Biotech ETF    IBB  US 0.19
Real Estate Cdn Apt. REIT   CAR.un 3.74 Cdn. Apt. REIT  CAR.un 3.74
Chartwell REIT  CSH.un 3.93 Chartwell REIT  CSH.un 3.93
Pure Industrial    AAR.un 4.71 Pure Industrial    AAR.un 4.71
European Equity BMO European ETF  ZEQ 1.92 BMO European ETF ZEQ 1.92
Emerging Markets iShares MSCI Emer. Mkts XEC 1.54 iShares MSCI Emer. Mkts XEC 1.54

 

Investment Commentary September 2017

The equity markets continue to climb despite the mounting wall of worry from the following:

  • North Korea Nuclear threats
  • US Congress and Senate difficulties passing any pro growth policies
  • US Annual Budget Issues
  • Possible US trade war with China and the EU
  • NAFTA negotiations not going smoothly
  • Interest rates rising, albeit more gradually currently in the US than in Canada
  • Equity markets due for a market valuation correction

I am maintaining my relatively high cash levels in both my Income and Growth portfolios as a result of these risks above.

There is no advantage in extending average term in the fixed income market with rates still very low historically.

While the Canadian economy is one of the fastest growing global economies in 2017 and is far outpacing its US counterpart, the Canadian stock market is one of the worst performers this year. Historically when this happened in the past the Canadian equity market caught up by outperforming the US. This is quite likely to happen once again as long as the probability of a global recession is low, which remains the case currently.

My equity sector weights are as follows:

  • Remain overweight Financials, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Technology
  • Remain underweight Energy, Materials, Telcos, Consumer Staples, Utilities and Real Estate
  • Market Weight Healthcare

In Financial services, I am adding CIBC to both the Income and Growth portfolios. The stock is yielding almost 5% and is the most domestically focused of the Big 5 Canadian banks. Its recent acquisition of a US wealth management company will be immediately accretive and help to diversify their overall business mix.

In the REIT sector, I am removing Pure Multi-Family with its weakening operating cash flow and very high dividend payout.

In the healthcare sector I am adding Celgene, a fast growing US biotechnology company that is trading at an attractive valuation. The company has a strong drug pipeline. The only risk is that the company derives over 60% of its revenues from one product, Revlimid used to treat multiple myeloma. However Celgene does not face any patent expiration on this drug until 2020 at the earliest and has little competition from other companies.

In the Consumer Discretionary sector, I am removing Dollarama after its parabolic share price climb recently based on its strong earnings. The stock is now trading over thirty times 2017 EPS and it is time to take some profits. Personally I sold my Dollarama and rotated into Canadian Tire which is much cheaper. I am adding Kohl’s to both my Income and Growth portfolios. It offers an attractive 5% dividend that is sustainable. The company is an off-price retailer whose stores are not in shopping malls, but in strip malls that are less affected by the decline in mall traffic. Recently the stores signed an agreement with both Under Armour and Amazon to sell their products in their stores. In the case of Amazon, Kohl’s is dedicating a large space offering Amazon’s home product offerings in a select group of stores in Chicago and Los Angeles. This is a real confidence booster for Kohl’s taking into account the decimation of shopping mall retailers like Macy’s and Target.

In the technology sector I am recommending the sale of Shopify. The stock has been one of the best performers on the TSX in addition to the NASDAQ index which is heavily tech weighted. I am still a believer in the company long term, but my conservative instincts are encouraging me to take profits.

I am removing BCE from my Telecommunications sector. Its earnings growth is low and this will not help in a rising interest rate environment.

In the Industrial Sector I am removing Apogee Enterprises from both the Income and Growth Portfolios. The company’s projected EPS has recently decreased by 9% as a result of problems integrating its last acquisition. While most of the bad news has probably already been discounted by the share price’s recent weakness, there are many other Industrial companies such as WSP Global and SNC that have stronger earnings growth prospects.

Finally in the Energy sector I am removing IPL from my Income Portfolio. The company is not growing its earnings, cash flows and dividends nearly as fast as Pembina Pipe and Enbridge. As a result of US shale production slowing and crude inventories sharply declining, I am significantly reducing my Energy sector underweight.

 

McMurtry Investment Report – Sector Weights (September 2017)

Equity Sector Weights (%)
Sector My Weight TSX Comp S&P 500 50/50 
Financials 27.75 34.50 14.20 24.35
Energy 10.75 19.60 5.70 12.65
Materials 6.00 12.30 2.90 7.60
Industrials 13.00 9.50 10.10 9.80
Consumer Disc. 10.00 5.30 12.10 8.70
Telecom 1.50 5.00 2.10 3.55
Consumer Staples 3.50 3.70 8.50 6.10
Technology 15.85 3.30 23.50 13.40
Utilities 2.00 3.30 3.40 3.30
Real Estate 2.00 3.00 3.00 3.00
Healthcare 7.65 0.60 14.70 7.65
Totals 100.00 100.10 100.20 100.10

 

McMurtry Investment Report Asset Mix (September 2017)

Asset Mix – Income and Growth Portfolios
% Income  Growth
Cash 32.50 22.50
Bonds 10.00 5.00
Preferreds 10.00 10.00
Equities 47.50 62.50
    CDN 20.75 28.25
    US 20.75 28.25
    Europe 4.00 4.00
    Emerging Markets 2.00 2.00

 

Please see our disclaimer at mcmurtryinvestmentreport.ca. Copyright ©2017 McMurtry Investment Report™. All rights reserved.

Also available in PDF: MIR Portfolios April 2019


Investment Commentary (April 2019)

Asset Mix Changes

Last week both the Canadian and US yield curve inverted where short rates exceeded longer maturities. For most of the past economic recessions, an inverted yield curve occurred 6-18 months before the onslaught of an economic slowdown. Consequently, this signal should not be taken lightly and brushed off as is frequently the case with economists stating that things are different this time.

This week the inversion of the curve went away in both Canada and the US with longer rates now slightly exceeding shorter maturities. However, the negative yield curve is still present in Europe where their economy continues to suffer.

US corporate bond spreads for both investment and High Yield securities had been creeping up in late December. However, year to date corporate spreads over US Treasuries have been coming down once again. Historically when corporate spreads widen this is a danger signal for an economic slowdown. The recent reduction is spreads is a positive sign that the economy may not be as weak as many pundits are saying.

Overall economic activity is definitely slowing globally. This is also true in the US but their economy is still growing on a relative basis much faster than Europe and Canada. Economic growth in the Chinese economy had been coming down sharply, but this week an announcement came out stating that their domestic industrial production started to revive after nearly nine months of decline. Several months ago the Chinese authorities began stimulating their domestic economy by lowering corporate taxes and increasing government spending. Once again this is a positive development.

The Federal Reserve has stopped increasing rates by emphatically stating that there will be no more rate increases for the remainder of the year.

US corporate profit growth has slowed dramatically from last year, while equity prices have rebounded sharply year to date. Equity valuations are no longer cheap as they were in late December.

This week the US / China trade talks have taken a more positive tone which is good for markets.

Taking all these factors into consideration, I have decided to leave the asset mix for both portfolios the same as last month. The jury is still out if an economic recession is imminent or only years away.

McMurtry Investment Report Asset Mix (April 2019)
   
Asset Mix – Income and Growth Portfolios
%Income Growth
Cash35.0030.00
Bonds – Regular20.0010.00
Bonds – High Yield5.005.00
Preferreds0.000.00
Equities40.0055.00
CDN15.7522.50
US19.2527.50
Europe5.005.00
Emerging Markets0.000.00

Equity Sectors

The main change to my equity sector recommendations is to reduce the Financial equity exposure from overweight to market weight the 55% US 45% Canada benchmark. This works out to a new weight of 21.25% of my North American equity exposure.

The reason for my reduction in weight for the Financial sector is all to do with interest rates and the slope of the yield curve. Lower rates combined with either a flat or inverted yield curve is not positive for the bank’s net interest margins. A slowing economy normally results in an increase in loan losses, another possible headwind.

For the other groups I remain market weight Energy, Utilities and Healthcare.

I remain overweight Technology, Industrials, Real Estate, Communication Services and Consumer Staples

I remain underweight Materials and Consumer Discretionary.

McMurtry Investment Report – Sector Weights (April 2019)
     
Equity Sector Weights (%)
SectorMy WeightTSX CompS&P 50055 % US /45% CDN
Financials21.2531.7012.7021.25
Energy11.0718.005.4011.07
Materials5.6611.202.606.47
Industrials10.4010.909.5010.13
Consumer Disc.6.404.1010.107.40
Comm. Services8.505.8010.108.17
Consumer Staples6.253.907.305.77
Technology14.004.5021.2013.69
Utilities3.714.203.303.71
Real Estate3.753.503.103.28
Healthcare9.022.2014.609.02
Totals100.00100.0099.9099.95

Common Equity Changes

In the Financial Services sector, I am replacing National Bank with Intact Financial for both portfolios. Intact is the largest property / casualty company in Canada and will benefit from the recent departure of AIG, a large US competitor from the Canadian market. Intact is raising insurance rates in Ontario and this will help to increase operating margins. Differing from life insurance companies, property and casualty insurance companies have much shorter term liabilities and are consequently not as negatively affected from flat to falling interest rates as the life companies are.

In the Technology sector, I am deleting Nokia from both portfolios. Huawei, the Chinese company and major competitor to Nokia has been continuously lobbying the global wireless providers to encourage them to continue buying their products. It is only in the US that the Chinese company has been banned with its alleged cybersecurity activities. Thus, Nokia has not been as much of a beneficiary from the 5G wireless ramp up as originally expected. In addition, a law firm has recently alleged that Nokia’s Alcatel – Lucent division has some very serious potential claims for security law violations. This creates a lot of uncertainty. My recommendation is to sell your Nokia shares and use the proceeds to purchase more Cisco, which will be a major beneficiary from the upcoming 5G implementation.

In the healthcare sector I am adding the Swiss dental implant company, Straumann Holdings ADR to my Growth portfolio. This American Depositary Receipt is not very liquid in the US market, so please always use limit orders when buying and selling this security. Despite this shortfall, this is a good quality company and one of the global leaders in the dental implant industry. The company is experiencing strong annual revenue and gross profit growth in addition to record EBITDA margins. The company has strong organic growth and operates in 100 countries globally. The global dental implant market is expected to grow at 4-5% globally this year and Straumann’s organic growth is sharply outperforming its competitors.

Lastly in the Materials sector, I am adding Osisko Metals to my Growth portfolio. The company is a small cap zinc exploration company that operates in both the Far North and in New Brunswick. The company has no long term debt and the level of insider buying is unusually high. Normally I do not even discuss insider buying, but the level of insider buying for this company is extraordinary. The supply / demand situation for zinc is the most favourable for all the base metals with inventory stockpiles at very low levels. Should the Chinese economy rebound the demand for zinc will increase accordingly.

Peter McMurtry, B.Com, CFA
Financial Writer
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Please see our disclaimer at mcmurtryinvestmentreport.ca. Copyright ©2019 McMurtry Investment Report™. All rights reserved.

McMurtry Investment Report – Portfolios (April 2019)
     
 IncomeGrowth
CashAlterna Bank – High Interest Savings (2.35% current rate)Alterna Bank – High Interest Savings (2.35% current rate)
 EQ Bank – High Interest Savings ( 2.30% current rate)EQ Bank – High Interest Savings ( 2.30% current rate)
Bonds -RegulariShares XSB Short TermiShares XSB Short Term
 iShares CBO 1-5 Ladder CorpiShares CBO 1-5 Ladder Corp
 iShares CLF 1-5 Ladder Gov’tiShares CLF 1-5 Ladder Gov’t
Bonds – High Yield CORPiShares XHY US High Yield CDN$  iShares XHY US High Yield CDN $ 
Common StocksSecurityDividend Yield %SecurityDividend Yield %
FinancialsRoyal Bank RY4.05Royal Bank RY4.05
 Bank of Montreal BMO4.00Bank of Montreal BMO4.00
 Bank of Nova Scotia BNS4.89Bank of Nova Scotia BNS4.89
 Intact Financial IFC2.69Intact Financial IFC2.69
 TD TD4.08TD TD4.08
 Sun Life SLF3.90Sun Life SLF3.90
 JP Morgan JPM US3.16JP Morgan JPM US3.16
 Bank of America BAC US2.17Bank of America BAC US2.17
 Citibank C US2.89Citibank C US2.89
 Morgan Stanley MS US2.84Morgan Stanley MS US2.84
 T. Rowe Price TROW US3.04T. Rowe Price TROW US3.04
 Keycorp KEY US4.32Keycorp KEY US4.32
 PNC Fin’l PNC US3.10PNC Fin’l PNC US3.10
EnergySuncor SU3.85Suncor SU3.85
 Freehold FRU7.43Freehold FRU7.43
 Torc TOG5.62Torc TOG5.62
 Pembina Pipe Lines PPL4.55Pembina Pipe Lines PPL4.55
 Enbridge ENB6.04Enbridge ENB6.04
 Trans Canada TRP4.91Trans Canada TRP4.91
   Parex Resources PXT0.00
MaterialsAgnico Eagle AEM1.15Agnico Eagle AEM1.15
 Franco Nevada FNV1.29Franco Nevada FNV1.29
   Osisko Metals OM.V0.00
   iShares Global Gold ETF XGD0.20
IndustrialsToromont TIH1.55Toromont TIH1.55
 Air Products APD US2.44Air Products APD US2.44
 WSP Global WSP2.06WSP Global WSP2.06
 Canadian Pacific CP0.94Canadian Pacific CP0.94
 CNR 1.79CNR1.79
 Raytheon RTN US2.03Raytheon RTN US2.03
 Aecon Group ARE3.33Aecon Group ARE3.33
 Guggenheim Eq WT IND RGI US1.35Guggenheim Eq Wt IND RGI US1.35
 Honeywell HON US2.07Honeywell HON US2.07
 TFI Int’l TFII2.45TFI Int’l TFII2.45
Consumer DiscretionaryHome Depot HD US2.80Home Depot HD US2.80
 Sleep Canada ZZZ3.77Sleep Canada ZZZ3.77
 Canadian Tire CTC.A2.88Canadian Tire CTC.A2.88
 Amazon AMZN US0.00Amazon AMZN US0.00
 Lowes LOW US1.75Lowes LOW US1.75
Communication ServicesRogers B RCI.B2.78Rogers B RCI.B2.78
   Facebook FB US0.00
   Alphabet GOOGL US0.00
Consumer StaplesAlimentation Couche- Tard ATD.B0.64Alimentation Couche Tard ATD.b0.64
 Loblaws L1.79Loblaws L1.79
 Constellation Brands STZ US1.69Constellation Brands STZ US1.69
 Unilever PLC UL US3.06Unilever PLC UL US3.06
TechnologyApple AAPL US1.54Apple AAPL US1.54
 Microsoft MSFT US1.56Microsoft MSFT US1.56
 Open Text OTEX1.58Open Text OTEX1.58
 Paychex PAYX US2.79Paychex PAYX US2.79
 Cisco CSCO US2.59Cisco CSCO US2.59
   Kinaxis KXS0.00
   ETFMG Prime Cyber Sec. HACK US0.15
   Visa V US0.64
UtilitiesAlgonquin Power AQN4.58Algonquin Power AQN4.58
 Northland Power NPI5.12Northland Power NPI5.12
 Fortis FTS3.64Fortis FTS3.64
HealthcareAbbott Labs ABT US1.60Abbott Labs ABT US1.60
 Becton Dickinson BDX US1.23Becton Dickinson BDX US1.23
 Merck MRK US2.65Merck MRK US2.65
 US Healthcare iShares ETF IYH US1.84US Healthcare iShares ETF IYH US1.84
 United Healthcare UNH US1.46United Healthcare UNH US1.46
   Danaher DHR US0.52
   Thermo Fisher Scientific TMO US0.28
   Straumann ADR SAUHY US *0.63
   IBB Biotech ETF IBB US 0.28
Real EstateCdn Apt. REIT CAR.un2.76Cdn. Apt. REIT CAR.un2.76
 InterRent REIT IIP.un2.03InterRent REIT IIP.un2.03
 Dream Industrial DIR.un5.83Dream Industrial DIR.un5.83
 Summit REIT SMU.un4.35Summit REIT SMU.un4.35
European EquityiShares MSCI Europe XEU2.96iShares MSCI Europe XEU2.96

* Be careful purchasing and selling Straumann ADR’s as it is very illiquid. Always use a limit order.

Peter McMurtry, B.Com, CFA

Please see our disclaimer at mcmurtryinvestmentreport.mydev.ca. disclaimer ©2019 McMurtry Investment Report™. All rights reserved.